Central bank sees Poland's CPI inflation below 3 percent in July
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) forecasts the country's CPI inflation rate to fall below the level of 3 percent in July, the first deputy governor of the bank has said.
"According to the forecasts, the inflation should fall below 3 percent this month, to the level in line with the NBP's target," Marta Kightley told a parliamentary committee on Thursday, adding that in the coming quarters the figure may slightly rise should regulated electricity prices be unfrozen.
"However, the projection shows that in the medium term, inflation will be aligned with the NBP's target," Kightley told the parliamentarians.
She mentioned fiscal policy, the business cycle, the job market and energy prices as the main factors influencing the country's inflation and said that the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), the Polish central bank's rate-setting body, would continue to take them into consideration when deciding about the country's interest rates.
According to the NBP, Poland's loose fiscal policy, which may be continued next year, would be driving up inflation.
As for business activity dynamics, they most probably accelerated in the second quarter of this year, and consumption also recorded a solid growth.
Despite the deteriorating data from the industrial sector that the NBP was receiving, Kightley indicated that a more rapid GDP growth was anticipated in 2025 compared to the prior year.
She described Poland's job market as characterised by low unemployment, although corporate employment had been falling for several months. Salaries were increasing, although at a lower rate, which is a key factor in NBP's inflation considerations.
"One thing is certain. The NBP will continue its monetary policy aimed at a lasting reduction of inflation, because this is the key commitment of the central bank towards Poles," she concluded.
Prices of consumer goods and services (Consumer Price Index, CPI) increased by 4.1 percent year on year in June 2025, according to Poland's statistical office GUS.
The RPP lowered interest rates in May and July by 50 and 25 basis points, respectively. The NBP's current reference rate stands at 5.0 percent. (PAP)
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