EBRD cuts Poland's 2025 growth forecast to 3.3 pct
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has reduced Poland's GDP growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3 percent in 2025, the bank said in a report on Tuesday.
"Poland's direct trade exposure to the United States is small and... the negative impact of the increased US import tariffs will be mostly indirect, primarily through Germany and supply linkages in the automotive sector," the EBRD wrote.
"While the outlook for Poland's exports is highly uncertain, domestic demand is robust, and slowing inflation and rising real household incomes are expected to sustain private consumption," the bank added.
"Accelerated investments, particularly in infrastructure and energy – co-financed by EU funds – as well as increased spending on defence are forecast to boost GDP growth in the short term," the EBRD continued, adding that private investments are expected to rebound in 2026, with prospects for exports remaining highly uncertain.
The report also said the falling commodity prices on global markets should support bringing inflation to the Polish central bank's target of 2.5 percent plus/minus one percentage point. This would provide an incentive for the central bank to lower its interest rates, thus supporting corporate credit and investment.
This could also slow down the appreciation of the zloty and, in effect, make Polish exports more competitive, the EBRD added. (PAP)
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