EC forecasts for Poland's GDP growth close to FinMin's, ministry says
The European Commission (EC)'s estimates for Poland's economic growth in 2024 and 2025 are near those of the Polish Ministry of Finance, the ministry has said.
Earlier on Wednesday, in its Autumn European Forecast report, the EC wrote that it expects Poland's GDP growth to be 2.7 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.
The Finance Ministry welcomed the EC forecasts and said they are similar to Poland's own estimates.
"The EC forecast... is close to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, especially those assuming a 3-percent increase in real GDP in 2024 and 3.4-percent growth in 2025," the ministry said.
The EC's expectations that after a slowdown in 2023, Poland's economic growth "is set to pick up" in the coming years owing to "a rebound in private consumption, further expansion of investment growth, and well performing exports" are also similar to the Polish ones, the ministry added.
According to the EC, Poland's HICP inflation reached its peak in the first half of 2023 and is expected to decline to 6.2 percent in 2024, and to 3.8 percent in 2025 from 11.2 percent this year.
These forecasts are again close to the Finance Ministry's, which envisage HICP inflation at 6.6 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025.
The EC's projection also assumes that the expiration of energy support measures and of the zero VAT rate for some foods at the end of 2023 will affect energy and food prices in 2024.
Poland's labour market will remain tight amid a broadly stable unemployment rate close to 3 percent, a historical low, according to the EC report. Employment is also projected to continue to increase gradually in the coming years.
"In this respect, Poland fares very well compared to other European countries, and has for a long time remained a country with one of the lower unemployment rates in the EU," the ministry commented.
The economic recovery predicted for the coming years will result in an increase in revenues, which, combined with the gradual withdrawal from most energy-related protective measures, will enable the general government deficit to be reduced to 4.6 percent of GDP in 2024 and 3.9 percent of GDP in 2025, despite the continuation of social and investment programmes, the ministry also said. (PAP)
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