Tusk's Civic Coalition leads in new poll but far-right blocs surge
Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) maintains its lead over the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party amid rising combined support for far-right parties, a new poll shows.
If elections were held this coming weekend, KO would secure first place with 29.3 percent of the vote, marking a 1.8 percentage point decrease compared to March, according to an IBRiS poll for private broadcaster Polsat News, published on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the socially-conservative PiS experienced a slight recovery, gaining 1.0 percentage point to sit in second place at 23.7 percent.
The far-right Confederation secured the final spot on the podium with 13.4 percent of the vote, a minor dip of 0.2 percentage points since March. However, its splinter faction, Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown, held strong at 8.0 percent, despite a 0.2 percentage point drop from March. This puts the combined nationalist vote at a significant 21.4 percent, making them a critical factor in the balance of power.
Further down, the Left party saw a notable boost, climbing 2.0 percentage points to reach 8.1 percent.
Several established parties face existential threats after failing to cross the 5-percent parliamentary threshold. The agrarian Polish People's Party (PSL) dropped 0.6 points to 4.2 percent, while the leftist Razem (Together) party slid to 2.9 percent. The centre-right Poland 2050 lingered at the bottom with just 1.5 percent, despite a minor 0.1 percentage point tick upward.
Undecided voters now account for 8.9 percent of the electorate, a 1.9 percentage point increase from March.
Overall voter turnout is projected at a robust 64.7 percent. The data indicates that women are currently more motivated to participate in elections than men, with 66.2 percent of women declaring readiness to vote compared to 63.1 percent of men.
Demographic age gaps remain stark, as voter mobilisation peaks at 73.4 percent among seniors aged 70 and older but plummets to its lowest level of 47.3 percent among young adults aged 18 to 29, Polsat News commented on its website.
PiS relies heavily on seniors, winning over 42 percent among voters over 60, while Confederation dominates the youth vote with 37.5 percent support in the 18–29 demographic group, while both Confederations win a combined 37.1 percent backing among those aged 30–39.
The rural-urban divide continues to define Polish politics. PiS leads in rural areas with 30.1 percent against KO's 22.7 percent. However, KO dominates urban centres, securing 35.3 percent in small towns (under 50,000 residents) and reaching 40.6 percent in major cities with over 250,000 inhabitants, where PiS drops to 20.8 percent.
Education also serves as a key predictor. PiS registers its best results among citizens with primary and basic vocational education (37.8 percent). KO leads among university graduates with 32.2 percent, a highly educated demographic where the Left also outperforms its national average, capturing 15.7 percent support.
The poll was conducted on a nationwide sample of 1,000 people between May 29 and June 2, 2026, using the CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) method. (PAP)
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